Forecasting Group Decisions from Individual Behavior: Impossibility Results∗
نویسنده
چکیده
Individuals with identical preferences each receive a signal about the unknown state of the world and decide upon a utility-maximizing recommendation on the basis of that signal. The group makes a decision that maximizes a common utility function assuming perfect pooling of the information in individual signals. An action profile is group action and a recommendation from each individual. A collection of action profiles is rational if there exists an information structure under which all elements in the collection arise with positive probability. With no restrictions on the information structure, essentially all action profiles are rational. In fact, given any distribution over action profiles it is possible to find an information structure that approximates the distribution. In a monotone environment in which individuals receive conditionally independent signals, essentially any single action profile is rational, although some collections of action profiles are not. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: A12, D01;
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تاریخ انتشار 2012